Overthinking is a school of red herrings. Sometimes it's a swarm. It's always a trap.

There's an implicit narrative underneath overthinking:
"If I just think through this enough, I'll figure it out. And once I figure it out, my problem will be solved."

Spoiler alert: premature optimization is the root of all evil, and overthinking is its primary accomplice. Don’t be seduced by the siren call of “figuring it all out.”

Action > Overthinking

One of my highest leverage mindset shifts came from committing to action over overthinking.

This week, while visiting Chicago, I ran an experiment to prioritize my healthy habits: working out and eating well. Normally, I’d let these habits slide when traveling, but this time I ordered groceries, made salads, and worked out almost daily. I even convinced my friends to join me.

One friend, in particular, hadn’t exercised in months but wanted to get back into the habit. Over dinner, he shared how he’d spent almost a year designing the perfect calisthenics routine that didn’t require a gym. The irony? He lives less than a five-minute walk from a gym with everything he needed.

Sure, being able to work out without a gym is great. But it’s not as important as actually building the habit of exercising. Once you’re consistent, optimization can come later. The gap between some exercise and none is always greater than the gap between some and better.

Prematurely optimizing for a routine that doesn't require a gym was a red herring. It distracted from the greater goal of exercising regularly

The Dataism Trap

As we talked, I saw a familiar pattern in him—and in myself. We drifted into discussions of cardio: which type was more effective, why some exercises were inconvenient, or which routines were optimal. All of it reminded me of the same overthinking that once kept me from the gym.

Overthinking keeps us stuck. Chasing the perfect solution often stops us from taking the first step.

This pattern isn’t just in fitness. It’s everywhere. It manifests itself as an obsession with metrics, which is yet another expresion that overthinking underpinning that "if I figure this out, I'll fix it". Nowadays, every new kind of data out there is its own potential red herring. I call this obsession Dataism, a term I first heard from Noah Yuval Harari. It is the fetishization of capturing and sharing metrics at the expense of participating in non-digital life.

The data is useful, sure, but it's also a vortex. People are glued to their Apple Watches, tracking steps or heart-rate zones, but often lose sight of simply moving their bodies. The data can be helpful, but it’s also a distraction. Unless you’re an elite athlete, you’re probably better served by focusing on the workout itself. Religious dedication to these metrics is often at the expense of simply exercising.

Excuses Masquerading as Reasons

Overthinking also creates excuses:

• “I don’t have the right shoes.”
• “I don’t have a gym shirt.”
• “I’m too tired today.”

These excuses can be valid. You don’t want to squat in bouncy running shoes, and maybe you really do need rest. But the key is learning to recognize when an excuse is a legitimate reason—and when it’s just another red herring.

Some people say you just need to do it. But I don't believe a militant mind solves excuses. "Do it anyways" is a brute force, inelegant algorithm to solve the problem of discipline, self-knowledge, and awareness. Our most developed selves are equipped with awareness to know when an excuse is valid or simply a red herring.

No external body can know whether an excuse is valid or invalid with certainty. Only you can know this.

Keep Your Eye on the Prize

Here’s my loving advice: don’t get caught in the school of red herrings. When your mind starts to swirl, pause and ask yourself: Am I caught in the swarm? Recognizing the traps is the first step to stepping out of them.

Keep your eye on the prize. Just do the damn thing. Even if it’s a D- job, showing up is always better than sitting out. The leap from 0% to 60% is far greater than the leap from 60% to 100%.

Even imperfect action breaks the cycle.